Poker Preflop Odds Heads Up Calculator

The Problem

I know how difficult it can be to make a +ev call preflop when facing a 3bet or a raise from a very tight opponent in a tournament (having to take into account ICM and all of that stuff for a push/fold decision).

We all know the theory and tools available for calculating the equity against a range (CoffeeCalcs, Flopzilla, Equilab, etc.), however, I have never read or heard about how to make the calculation on the fly in your head and I truly believe having a good estimate while playing is a huge advantage and gives you an edge in the long run.

So what better way to illustrate my point than with a few examples?

1. A tight opponent raises UTG with about 7% of his hands, so his range might be something like AJs+ KQs AQo+ 77+. Facing this range, which hands are a +ev call?

Well, first of all, we need a very strong range in this spot to justify the call, probably something like TT+ and AK. But it would be amazing to just know by looking at your hand what is the exact equity you have and compare it to the pot odds you are getting.

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2. You are at the bubble in a tournament, you have only a few BBs away to loose all your chips and someone with a similar stack than yours decide to shove, is it +ev to call with A9s or maybe with KJs?

The Solution

So, as we have seen, there are situations where studying a lot off the tables can help you have a rough idea of what the best play is, however it will only be an estimate and most of the time, not necessarily a good one.

A long time ago while reading through some articles, I found one about the SAGE method, which stands for Sit and Go End Game and was developed by Lee Jones in his book “Winning Low Limit Hold’em”. Basically, SAGE is an equilibrium strategy that uses a power index or in simple terms, just a number, to qualify the strength of any hand in a heads up situation where both players have less than 8 BBs.

The way to come up with the power index of a hand is as follows:

1. Assign the value of each card, Aces being worth a 15, Kings a 13, Queens 12, Jacks 11 and so on…
2. Double the highest value in the hand and add up the value of the lowest.
3. Add 22 points if you hold a pair.
4. Add 2 points if it is suited.

Then compare the resulting points with the following table:

Btw, the “R” refers to the number of BBs.

So there you have it, that’s the SAGE system, piece of cake!!!

Compare 2 Hands Preflop

This got me thinking a lot, what if this actually can be applied in every single situation preflop?…

The Formula

I kept thinking and thinking… I wish I was smarter to figure it out sooner, meanwhile, years went by… NOT! hahaha it just took a bit longer than expected, but when it hit me, it was LEGEN…. wait for it…….. DARY!!!

What I am trying to say is that I realized that if you sum 20 points more to the equation, you actually come up with almost the exact equity percentage of the hand against a random range (meaning a 100% range). That’s freaking powerful!!!

So let’s take a look at the formula:

Equity = DHV+LV+20
DHV = Double Highest Value
LV = Lowest Value
20 = the number, not much more to say here…
*If it is a pair, apply the same formula, but instead of adding the last 20 points, add 44.

Again, let’s see some examples and compare with the actual equity:

1. AKo vs Random range: if we use the formula, we would double 15, add 13 and add another 20 points for a resulting 63% equity. If we calculate it using an equity tool the result would be 65.3%.

2. QJs vs Random range: with the formula we get 57% and with a tool we get 60.3%.

3. 55 vs Random range: with the formula we get 59% and with a tool we get 60.3%.

4. Q2o vs Random range: with the formula we get 46% and with a tool we get 47.3%.

That’s it guys, as simple as that, I know some hands will differ a little bit, specially the one at the extremes (meaning very strong or very weak), but it won’t go further than 3-7%. Also, take into account that with a very strong or very weak hand the decision is easy, is with marginal or medium strength hands that we struggle the most, so I believe it can be useful for some of you the next time you are at the table playing.

Adjusting

To be continued… next post will cover how to adjust the resulting equity to a range % that is not random (20% opening range, 5% 3bet range, etc.). This will take your fast equity calculation to the next level, so stick around for the next post!!!

Thank you guys and I really hope you like it and find it useful.

Preflop Odds Chart

Please comment!!!